Artificial Intelligence Adoption for Conflict Early Warning System in the Fragile States in Africa: Opportunities, Architecture and Ethical Imperatives
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63746/njtd.v22i2.3996Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence, Conflict. Early Warning, Fragile State, Peacebuilding, ConflictAbstract
Economic instability, weak governance and fragmentation of social fabric have accounted for the problem of maintaining peace and security in fragile states. The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in conflict early warning systems (CEWS) presents an innovative approach to managing and preventing conflict in Africa’s fragile states. This paper explores the potential of AI to enhance CEWS that will predict, track and prevent conflict via data-driven insights. This study explore how AI technologies can be leveraged to enhancing conflict early warning frameworks in the fragile states thereby offering a proactive approach to peacebuilding and conflict prevention. Machine learning, predictive analytics and big data form the basis for AI applications in CEWS. These technologies can analyse vast datasets from sources like social media, satellite imagery, and geospatial data to detect conflict indicators and patterns, enabling decision-makers to take pre-emptive action. The study also draws on theories of conflict prevention and peacebuilding, emphasizing the role of technology in enhancing state capacity.
The study concludes that AI’s capacity to improve the accuracy and timeliness of conflict predictions. However, significant challenges remain, such as data quality issues, algorithmic biases, and the need for human oversight. Furthermore, fragile states often lack the technical expertise and infrastructure required to fully implement AI solutions. Governments and international organisations must therefore invest in AI capacity-building, ensure data governance standards are met and foster collaboration between technology developers and peacebuilding experts. By integrating AI into national and regional security frameworks, fragile states can better anticipate and prevent conflicts, ultimately contributing to long-term peace and stability in their region.
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